Oscars 2018 Predictions

Ask and ye shall receive, people! My rambling hopes and expectations for the Oscars!


I'll try to go in order of how they'll be presented the night of. I've seen none of the documentaries, short films, animated movies, or foreign films nominated this year. No one cares about those anyway. If anything, I want Coco to win Best Animated because I love Gabriel Garcia Bernal and I want A Fantastic Woman to win because I know whenever I'll get to see it I'll love it.

The only Best Picture movie I haven't seen yet is The Post, which I expect to love and immediately forget.

Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

My hope is Laurie Metcalf but Allison Janney is a lock here. Janney has won every major award this year despite her character's lack of an arc. The Academy loves abusive mothers for Supporting Actress, which says a lot about the Industry.

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Once again what I want to happen and what will happen don't line up. For the first time in his career, I didn't look at Willem Dafoe and see an ax murderer. Instead, Sam Rockwell is a relatively sure thing. His character is a bigot who is reformed through a taste of his own medicine.

Film Editing
“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory

First time my wish and prediction line up! The editing of "Baby Driver" is perfectly synced to the action and syncopated soundtrack. I watched an interview of Machliss where he said he had a portable editing bay on set. Edgar Wright would check with him to make sure they had the perfect take for the edit before he moved on.

Sound Editing
“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green
“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood

"Baby Driver" for both. Same reasons: Wright is an auteur who achieves technical perfection.

Sound Mixing
“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick

"Baby Driver" again. I find it hilarious Dunkirk was nominated in this category BECAUSE I COULDN'T HEAR A FUCKING WORD ANYONE WAS SAYING.

Production Design
“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau

"The Shape of Water" across the board. Sets were perfect for the period, in particular Eliza's apartment. Shades of blue and green everywhere with dashes of red. So cinematic!

Original Score
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

"Phantom Thread" should win because I want to see Jonny Greenwood in a tux awkwardly accepting but Desplat will win for "The Shape of Water" because he's an Industry fav. They like waltzy sounding minimalist piano scores.

Original Song
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

This is a pretty open field. I want Sufjan to win for the same reasons I want Jonny Greenwood to win  (though the studio should have put "Visions of Gideon" up for consideration instead). Maybe "This Is Me" will win because people think a musical should win Best Original Song.

Makeup and Hair
“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten

"Darkest Hour" I guess because making an old white man look like an older white man is worthy of recognition.

Costume Design
“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

"Phantom Thread" because not only were the costumes beautiful, but you could feel Reynolds Woodcock's idiosyncrasies in the structural gowns.

Visual Effects

“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,”  Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist

I honestly don't care about this category so I'll give it to "Blade Runner 2049" cause it was robbed of a Best Picture nom.

Adapted Screenplay
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

From what I've been hearing, this is the only Oscar CMBYN is expected to win. Movies are often given screenplay awards as consolation. James Ivory is beloved and old as ballz. I've read most of the screenplay and it seems they cut most of the lines in the final movie but his spirit carries everything.

Original Screenplay
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

I want "Get Out" to win and I'm 50:50 sure but "Lady Bird" is just as likely.

Cinematography
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
"Mudbound," Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Not only should Roger Deakins win, he HAS TO WIN FOR MY SANITY. It doesn't have to be a quasi-Lifetime Achievement Award, "Blade Runner 2049" is one of the most beautifully lit and composed movies I've ever seen.

Lead Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

If you've spoken to me in the past two months, you'll know my fav is Timothée. His perfect balance of "teenage boy trying to be macho" and vulnerability made me feel emotions. But Gary Oldman is going to win because biopics are ~important.

Lead Actress
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, "The Post"

Frances McDormand will win for playing herself. Or maybe Sally Hawkins cause she put in the prep. I loved Saoirse and this is already her third nom but I feel like they're gonna make her wait more.

Director
"Dunkirk," Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
"Lady Bird," Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Guillermo del Toro for the win because no one else could have made "The Shape of Water." And he's a cutie. Otherwise I would be happy with any of them winning except for Christopher Nolan who disappointed me. The only character I can remember from "Dunkirk" is Mark Rylance.

Best Picture:
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

I've been preparing myself to accept CMBYN not winning Best Picture for months and I'm still not there yet. I'll be okay if "The Shape of Water" or "Get Out" win but if "Three Billboards" wins, I'll give up on the Oscars then and there.

If my opinions change between today and Sunday (especially if I end up liking "The Post" more than I expected to), I'll edit this post accordingly.

Until then, thanks for reading!